The country with some of the most fertile lands in the world is nicknamed barn Europe is an understatement of its agricultural potential.
Together with Russiathese two countries account for approximately 14% of world corn exports, 22% of rapeseed/canola exports, 27% of wheat exports and 30% of barley exports. as well as almost 70% of world exports of sunflower oil.
Russia is also a global largest exporter of fertilizersand so the global food system is facing simultaneous challenges from Western sanctions on Russia and steeper costs of both growing and food imports.
Since February, Russia has taken over some of the most vital agricultural areas in the east and southeast of the country. The Russian military also prevented Ukraine from access its Black Sea ports recently, leaving Ukraine essentially landlocked and unable to export its food to international markets.
But while the war certainly exacerbated the global food crisis, it was preceded by food price increases in 2007 and 2011, in addition to increases due to the Covid-19 response. after decades of falling costs in real prices food.
In 2021 data from the Food and Agriculture Organization The United Nations (FAO) showed larger increases in prices for meat, dairy products, cereals, vegetable oils and sugar, which exceeded previous increases seen in 2007 and 2011.
With the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, food prices jumped even more. The situation highlighted the declining levels of food self-sufficiency around the world, FAO defines as “the extent to which a country can meet its food needs through its own production.” Since the 1960s, food self-sufficiency worldwide has declined. especially in Africabut also in countries like Japan.
Based on current trends, only 14% of countries they are predicted to become self-sufficient in terms of food by the end of the century, according to an article in the journal Environmental Research Letters. Thus, imports are becoming increasingly important for a growing number of countries unable to meet their food needs through domestic production. But the growing volatility in food prices since 2007 has been a test of the system’s accessibility and competence.
Food security, the ability to meet food demand through domestic production and imports, has also declined globally in recent years. While richer countries that have become less self-sufficient in food production could previously bear rising import costs, food shortages are now also affecting them too.
In addition to the war in Ukraine and the disruption of global supply chains during the Covid-19 pandemic, other factors have exacerbated these stresses.
In the year 2000, the world’s population stood about 6.1 billion, while Today that’s 7.9 billion. Global eating habits have also changed: per capita meat consumption significantly increasing over the past 20 years. High levels of obesity, formerly limited to Europe and North America, currently distributed throughout the world.
Due to the increase in the number of mouths, global food security is also threatened loss of arable land due to erosion, pollution, climate change and growing water scarcity over the past few decades. These problems have been partly offset by increased efficiency in food production and globalization, which has allowed countries to sell surplus food in a competitive market.
However, the war in Ukraine exacerbated these problems. In addition to suppressing Ukraine’s export opportunities, Russia significantly reduced export of food and agricultural products to “unfriendly countries” in connection with the sanctions, cutting off most food exports to the Western world, as well as to Japan and South Korea.
But even net exporters like Russia are in trouble as the Kremlin announced in March that “suspend exports of wheat, meslin, rye, barley and corn to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) — an economic bloc led by Russia — until August 31 to ensure their own domestic food supply.
The food crisis has prompted other countries to do more to strengthen their positions to secure food supply systems. USA imported over $1 billion worth of fertilizer from Russia in 2021. In an effort to offset U.S. agriculture’s dependence on Russia, President Joe Biden has committed $2.1 billion to June 1 to strengthen the country’s food system.
In MarchThe European Union has allocated up to €1.5 billion ($1.58 billion) to support the bloc’s agricultural sectors, as well as relaxation of the rules on the European Green Deal, including restrictions on land available for agriculture. Introduced in 2019 to contain and eliminate greenhouse gas emissions, the rejection of the Green Deal underscored the seriousness of the situation.
As food prices began to rise rapidly in 2021, China has been accused of stockpiling grain. By Decemberthe country owned more than half of the world’s grain reserves, and according to data provided by the USDA, in the first half of 2022 China was forecast to hold half of the world’s wheat, 60% of the rice supply. and approximately 70% of corn supplies.
Over a dozen countries banned the export of some or all food until the end of this year or next, and these measures are unlikely to be the last.
The latest spike in wheat prices, which have risen more than 40% since January, followed by India’s announcement that he would ban exports after a heatwave that destroyed crops in the country. The decision by India, the world’s second largest wheat producer, dealt another blow to volatility in global food markets.
More serious consequences are being felt in Sri Lanka. In 2021 President Gotabaya Rajapaksa imposed a ban on synthetic fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides, so that by 2030 the country’s agricultural sector will become completely organic. destroyed domestic food production.
Having survived the 2019 economic crisis, the pandemic, and rising food and energy prices as a result of the war in Ukraine, Sri Lanka did not fulfill his duty for the first time in history in May. The same fate may befall other economically unstable countries, including Sri Lanka. violent protests.
The chaotic consequences of rising food costs have been visible for more than a decade. The availability of food was main factor until the start of the Arab Spring in 2010, which led to protests, government overthrows and civil wars. Arab region typically receives 40% to 50% of its food imports from Ukraine and Russia, indicating that the region is particularly vulnerable to food insecurity.
Even before the invasion of Ukraine, more and more people around the world were malnourished. Last year was a record year According to the Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC), almost 193 million people face acute food insecurity in 53 countries and territories.
Along with millions of Ukrainians who will need food aid this year, crop shortages and conflicts in other parts of the world meant countries such as Yemen, Burkina Faso, Kenya, Nigeria, Niger, Somalia, and South Sudan are also at high risk, in addition to countries that have been hit harder by rising food prices.
While the food crisis has prompted governments to adopt nationalist policies to protect themselves, there are few examples of international cooperation. India provided Sri Lanka with billions of dollars in loans since the start of the economic crisis, as well as emergency food deliveries.
Meanwhile, European states are trying develop alternative transit routes for Ukrainian food away from Russian-controlled Black Sea ports, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Turkey on June 8 for discussion, including the creation of a Black Sea corridor to allow Ukrainian grain to reach world markets.
But like energy, food has also served as a foreign policy weapon. Faced with the fact that food insecurity is one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s main leverage in the West, he can be expected to redouble his efforts to ensure that the current food crisis continues. Former President Dmitry Medvedev said on April 1 that food exports are “quiet but sinisterweapons that Russia intended to use.
US Federal Bureau of Investigation also warned against growing cyberattacks and potential sabotage of agricultural and food businesses in the US.
As the global food crisis approaches a new phase, increasing Ukrainian exports, encouraging international cooperation and developing additional agricultural initiatives will be vital to overcome it.
This article was prepared traveler, which provided it to Asia Times.
